Is the Australian Prime Minister’s reign coming to an end?

There is intense speculation in the media today that Prime Minister Julia Gillard is on the verge of “being dumped” by her party. While there is no doubt that 2012 has been disastrous so far for the Labor Party and Julia Gillard in particular, why would her supporters suddenly turn about-face and look elsewhere?

Terrible publicity blights Julia Gillard

Julia Gillard was recently involved in a very embarrassing and a potentially dangerous situation on National Australia Day when she was caught in the crossfire between Tony Abbott, the leader of the opposition, and aboriginal protesters. While initially it looked as though Tony Abbott had talked disparagingly of the aboriginal protest movement and in particular the “Tent Embassy” outside the Australian Parliament, there are some who doubt this particular recollection of the embarrassing episode.

While the image of the Prime Minister of Australia literally being dragged from the baying crowds by security guards, not to mention the fact she lost her shoe in the tussle, was embarrassing enough, it now seems as though it may well have been one of our own advisers who is alleged to have inadvertently ignited the situation. Initially it was suggested that comments attributed to Tony Abbott had inflamed the aboriginal protestors but this has been disputed by Tony Abbott and he has in fact called for a judicial review of the debacle.

Popularity ratings remain subdued

If pictures of her being dragged across the street were not bad enough, it has also been revealed that support for the current Australian government, and Julia Gillard in particular, has remained at very low levels. There are some in the party who believe that she is something of a liability in the public relations stakes and indeed the current Foreign Minister, Kevin Rudd, whom she replaced in 2010 is said to be a front runner for her position.

It is a very difficult situation for the Australian Labor Party because Kevin Rudd is not particularly well liked within the party, seen as something of a loner, but he is most certainly attracting the support of voters. Whether his previous position as leader of the party is a positive or negative attribute at the moment remains to be seen but those looking to plot against the current leader and Australian Prime Minister are certainly using his name as something of a stalking horse.

Election due in 2013

The situation regarding a potential leadership challenge is very complicated with the next general election not expected until the second half of 2013. Therefore if, as some people expect, there is a leadership challenge for Julia Gillard’s position then ultimately this could put the current status quo of the Australian Parliament in jeopardy.

Currently Julia Gillard retains control of parliament due to the assistance of a very small number of independent MPs, some of whom may well jump ship if she was “knifed in the back”. This would then lead to a constitutional nightmare and a potential general election well before the second half of 2013. However, when you take into account the fact that Julia Gillard’s personal rating among supporters and her fellow MPs has diminished dramatically over the last few months is she holed below the waterline?

All bets are off for Kevin Rudd!

In a world where money talks it was interesting to see a number of online bookmakers slashing the odds on Kevin Rudd returning to lead the party and potentially lead the country. He is now 5/1 ON to return as leader of the Labor Party before the end of 2012. He is a character who is not to the liking of everybody but he is a character who has caught the attention of the voting public who now appear restless for change.

While it is known in private circles that Kevin Rudd would welcome the opportunity to return as leader of the Labor Party it is unlikely that he will push himself into the limelight in the short to medium term. There are many terms of etiquette in the political arena and it will likely be up to his supporters, and his own inner circle, to push forward his case for change. Whether this will lead to a change in the Australian economy and economic policies in the short to medium term remains to be seen but change often leads to restlessness and short-term concern – especially if something of a political vacuum was created on the calling of an early election.

Julia Gillard’s colleagues rally around in public

As we have seen time and time again in the political arena, Julia Gillard’s army of supporters have been very quick to grab the media limelight and offer their support. However, in politics it is very often what is not said rather than what is said and some of the more prominent members of the party have yet to formally give Julia Gillard their support in public. In political terms there are many that believe “Julia Gillard is a dead woman walking”.

It will be interesting to see how the battle of the two leaders, the current leader and former leader, pans out in public because the Labor Party certainly does not need internal bickering and a public slanging match. However, many people already believe that the die is cast on Julia Gillard’s term as Prime Minister and leader of the Australian Labor Party.

Conclusion

At a time when the Australian economy is performing better than many people could ever have expected, it does seem bizarre to be talking about a potential change of Prime Minister and Labor Party leader. However, there are many within the Labor Party that believe Julia Gillard has not covered herself in glory over the last few weeks and a number of recent PR bungles have certainly turned a large number of voters against her.

Hopefully we will move away from a potential political vacuum in the short to medium term and the situation will be clarified and rectified sooner rather than later. Any uncertainty, in the political or economic arena, would be very bad for a country which is performing much better than the vast majority of developed economies.

Is the Australian Prime Minister’s reign coming to an end?

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