Latest forecast suggest the Australian population could reach 30 million in 11 years

by Ray Clancy on November 28, 2018

in Australia

Australia’s population is forecast to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years with newcomers from overseas contributing to the growth, according to official figures.

Based on current trends the number of people living in Australia will reach this mark between 2029 and 2033, the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggest.

Population Growth

(By Katty2016/Shutterstock.com)

Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

‘The projected time for the nation to grow by five million people on current indications will be similar, if not a little shorter, than the 14 years it took to grow from 20 million to 25 million,’ said Anthony Grubb, director of demography at the ABS.

‘Looking further ahead, based on the medium of our three main projection assumption series, Australia could add a further 10 million to our current 25 million by the year 2043,’ he pointed out.

‘However under our higher range of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions the population would reach 35 million five years earlier in 2038. Conversely, under lower assumptions the population would only reach 35 million a decade later in 2053,’ he explained.

Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between approximately nine and 9.3 million. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population, possibly reaching between seven and eight million by 2027.

Queensland is projected to continue growing over the projection period, increasing to six million people in 2027. Western Australia is projected to increase to three million by 2027, while South Australia is projected to have slower growth, increasing to two million.

The population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase to between 479,000 and 510,000 people closing the gap on Tasmania’s population which is projected to reach between 545,000 and 573,000 people in 2027. The Northern Territory is projected to increase to between 270,000 and 284,000 people in 2027.

The SBS is also forecasting that the number of people aged 85 years and over is projected to double in the next 25 years by 2042, increasing to over one million people.

‘By 2042, people aged 85 years or over could make up 3% of Australia’s population, compared to only 2% in 2017. The narrowing gap in the life expectancy of men and women could see the proportion of men in this older age group increase from 38% to 42% in 2066 under medium assumptions.

The median age of the population would increase by between one and 3.6 years. In 2017, Australia’s median age was 37.2 years old and by 2042 it could be 39.3 years and by 2066 it could be 40.7 years.

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