Western Australia set to see rapid population growth

by Ray Clancy on November 26, 2013

in Australia

Australia’s population could double to 46 million by 2075 but if there is rapid growth this level might be reached by 2058, according to the latest projection just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS.)

Perth would see considerable population growth, overtaking Brisbane in 2028 with three million people and by 2038 the Australian Capital Territory could overtake Tasmania.


Western Australia’s population is projected to almost double in size by 2040, from 2.4 million people in 2012 to 4.7 million

Melbourne and Sydney should be neck and neck by 2053 with each having a population of 7.9 million and Queensland will go from 4.6 million people to 7.3 million, according to Bjorn Jarvis, director of demography at the ABS

‘Based on our projections, with medium growth, Australia will double its population by the year 2075. But under our high and low scenarios it could be as early as 2058, or after 2101,’ explained Jarvis.

‘Highlights from the ABS projections include Perth overtaking Brisbane in 2028, at three million people, and then 10 years later, the Australian Capital Territory overtaking Tasmania with its population growing from 375,000 to 586,000,’ he added.

Western Australia’s population is projected to almost double in size by 2040, from 2.4 million people in 2012 to 4.7 million while the population of the Northern Territory is projected to grow from 240,000 people in 2012 to 360,000 people in 2040, a 51% increase.

The projection for Victoria is an increase from 5.6 million to 8.4 million, growth of 50% and for New South Wales 7.3 million to 9.9 million, a rise of 35%. South Australia is projected to have growth of 26% from 1.7 million to 2.1 million.

Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

‘The ageing of Australia’s population as a result of sustained low fertility, combined with increasing life expectancy is likely to continue. In 2012 Australia’s median age was 37 years old but by 2040 it could be 40.5 years,’ said Jarvis.

In addition, the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to double, from 3.2 million people, 14% of the population, in 2012 to 6.8 million or 20% of the population by 2040.

Similarly, the number of people aged 85 years and over is projected to almost triple by 2040, increasing by 770,000 people to reach 1.2 million in 2040. By then, people aged 85 years or over will make up 4% of Australia’s population compared to only 2% in 2012.

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