population

Latest forecast suggest the Australian population could reach 30 million in 11 years

by Ray Clancy on November 28, 2018

in Australia

Australia’s population is forecast to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years with newcomers from overseas contributing to the growth, according to official figures.

Based on current trends the number of people living in Australia will reach this mark between 2029 and 2033, the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggest.

Population Growth

(By Katty2016/Shutterstock.com)

Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.

‘The projected time for the nation to grow by five million people on current indications will be similar, if not a little shorter, than the 14 years it took to grow from 20 million to 25 million,’ said Anthony Grubb, director of demography at the ABS.

‘Looking further ahead, based on the medium of our three main projection assumption series, Australia could add a further 10 million to our current 25 million by the year 2043,’ he pointed out.

‘However under our higher range of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions the population would reach 35 million five years earlier in 2038. Conversely, under lower assumptions the population would only reach 35 million a decade later in 2053,’ he explained.

Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between approximately nine and 9.3 million. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population, possibly reaching between seven and eight million by 2027.

Queensland is projected to continue growing over the projection period, increasing to six million people in 2027. Western Australia is projected to increase to three million by 2027, while South Australia is projected to have slower growth, increasing to two million.

The population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase to between 479,000 and 510,000 people closing the gap on Tasmania’s population which is projected to reach between 545,000 and 573,000 people in 2027. The Northern Territory is projected to increase to between 270,000 and 284,000 people in 2027.

The SBS is also forecasting that the number of people aged 85 years and over is projected to double in the next 25 years by 2042, increasing to over one million people.

‘By 2042, people aged 85 years or over could make up 3% of Australia’s population, compared to only 2% in 2017. The narrowing gap in the life expectancy of men and women could see the proportion of men in this older age group increase from 38% to 42% in 2066 under medium assumptions.

The median age of the population would increase by between one and 3.6 years. In 2017, Australia’s median age was 37.2 years old and by 2042 it could be 39.3 years and by 2066 it could be 40.7 years.

{ 0 comments }

Thumbnail image for Australia’s growing population could result in targeted immigration policies

Australia’s growing population could result in targeted immigration policies

August 13, 2018 Australia Immigration

Australia’s population has exceeded 25 million, increasing by the equivalent of one person every one minute and 23 seconds, according to official figures, amid calls for migration to be targeted towards regional areas. Much of the growth is led by people moving to Australia to live and work, with one person arriving to live in […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Population growth in key Australian cities down to immigration, latest data shows

Population growth in key Australian cities down to immigration, latest data shows

April 30, 2018 Australia Immigration

For the first time on record, Sydney’s population grew by more than 100,000 people in one year, according to new official figures. Sydney’s population hit 5.1 million at June 2017, an increase of 101,600 people or 2% since June 2016, the data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows. But it was Melbourne that […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Latest Census figures show where most people live in Australia

Latest Census figures show where most people live in Australia

October 11, 2017 Australia

Most people in Australia live in cities in the Eastern side of the country with more than two thirds of the population living in a State capital, official figures show, with women making up over half of the nation. Almost 80% of the population lives in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and the Australian Capital […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for The youngest population in Australia can be found in Darwin, official data shows

The youngest population in Australia can be found in Darwin, official data shows

August 30, 2017 Australia

Darwin in Australia has the nation’s youngest population while Hobart in Tasmania has the oldest, the latest official figures show. Overall the median age of the Australian population, that is the age at which half the population is older and half is younger, was 37.2 years, up from 36.7 years in June 2006, according to […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Australia sees mini population boom as more people arrive to live and work

Australia sees mini population boom as more people arrive to live and work

March 23, 2017 Australia Immigration

More people are moving to live and work in Australia with the country seeing its fastest growth in net overseas migration (NOM) in four years, according to the latest official figures. The data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that in the 12 months to the end of September 2016 the numbers increased […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Slower population growth in Australia is good for the economy, says bank report

Slower population growth in Australia is good for the economy, says bank report

July 27, 2016 Australia

Australia’s population growth has stabilised at 1.4% per annum but this is down compared to the 2.2% recorded in 2008, according to new data. This is positive news for the nation’s economic outlook, according to the report from investment bank UBS which also shows that fewer immigrants are moving to Australia but more Australians are […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Melbourne becomes Australia’s fastest growing capital city

Melbourne becomes Australia’s fastest growing capital city

April 1, 2016 Australia

Melbourne is officially Australia’s fastest growing capital city, with the latest data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showing its population is up by 2.1%. This figure for 2014/2015 is down slightly from the 2.2% recorded in the previous 12 month period but still higher than the next fastest growing capital Darwin where […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Small Australian city could hold clues to attracting more people to rural areas

Small Australian city could hold clues to attracting more people to rural areas

February 26, 2016 Australia Immigration

A small city in South Australia has been chosen as the location for a new study to create a better understanding of how new migrants can be successfully settled in rural areas. Most people arriving in Australia to live and work tend to want to live in the big cities where there is plenty to […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Australia’s population surpasses 24 million with almost 30% born overseas

Australia’s population surpasses 24 million with almost 30% born overseas

February 17, 2016 Australia

Australia’s population has reached a milestone 24 million with migration contributing significantly to the rise, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The population clock is an indication of the current population, based on a projection calculated using births and deaths data from the ABS and migration figures from the Department of Immigration […]

Read the full article →
Thumbnail image for Australia’s aging population signals need for skilled care aids

Australia’s aging population signals need for skilled care aids

July 16, 2015 Australia

More skilled workers from overseas are needed for Australia’s caring sector, especially carers for the aged, due to workforce shortages, it is claimed. The Department of Social Services has told the Productivity Commission, which is currently reviewing the benefits and cost of migration including visa fees, that an aging population and projected shortage of unpaid […]

Read the full article →