This was the assumption I made when I first looked at the processing times, however, when you read more closely, you realise these processing times are misleading. I will put in a disclaimer that I have no knowledge of the process - this is just my interpretation of the information available.
Processing times are based on the age of applications finalised in a given period. Processing times are based on the age of visa applications finalised recently.
Source:
Global visa processing times
This means the published processing times are not the time frame you can expect to wait for your application to be processed. Instead it's saying that of the applications finalised this month, 25% fall into the 3 month bracket. A further 25% are less than 4 months etc. There is no mention at all about the age of the applications that haven't been processed.
If you cross reference this information with data released under Freedom of Information, it paints a bleak picture.
Source:
https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/foi/files/2021/fa-211200358-document-released.PDF
Currently, there are only 30 - 40 Offshore Non-PMSOL processed a month for the 186 DE. The average processing times published are applicable to the few that get processed. So that means of the 41 processed in November 21, 10 were less than 3 months, 11 were 3 - 4 months, 10 were 4 - 6 months, 6 were 6-9 months and the remaining 4 were older than 9 months. There is no mention at all about the age of the applications that haven't been processed - and there is a backlog of nearly 600.
There may be an explanation.
As borders reopen, and more people become eligible for travel,
many of these applications are now being finalised.
Source:
Global visa processing times
At first this seems odd, since you become a PR and therefore you are eligible for travel. However, it might make more sense if you are only activated as a PR once you have gone through migration at the airport. When you arrive at the migration desk, you are not yet PR and therefore not eligible for travel. So the few applications being processed might reflect the small numbers that have been through a process to demonstrate why they are needed in Australia urgently. Perhaps then we can welcome the opening of the borders next week and hope to see more processing than has been done for a year or so.
Like I say, I could be wrong. Take a look and tell me what you think.